Putin’s empty threats can’t disguise his fear of Western unity

The Russian leader fears that the use of Storm Shadow may grant his enemy the momentum for victory

One of the more predictable features of the Ukraine conflict has been the apocalyptic threats from Putin every time Western leaders seek to strengthen the Ukrainian military’s firepower.
Putin’s pitiable rhetoric is designed to intimidate Western leaders into dialling down their pro-Ukraine stance. The autocrat’s bully-boy tactics began within days of Russia launching its so-called “special military operation” to conquer Ukraine.
To deter Western involvement, he warned that the West faced “horrible consequences” if it backed Ukraine’s fight for freedom.
Since then he has made numerous references to Russia’s massive nuclear arsenal, usually when Nato leaders are considering ways of improving their military support, such as providing tanks and F-16 warplanes.
One of his more forthright threats came in February after French President Emmanuel Macron unilaterally made the suggestion that Nato forces should be deployed to the Ukrainian battlefield. Putin responded by warning that such a deployment “threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilisation.”
Nothing has come of these threats, not least because China, whose support the Kremlin relies on to keep the Russian economy afloat, has made it clear it will not tolerate the use of any nuclear weapons by Moscow.
While Putin rants, supplies of Western weapons continue to make their way to Ukraine, significantly enhancing their ability to defend themselves against Russian aggression.
That is not to say that the Russian leader’s bluster has not affected deliberations when discussing military support for Ukraine.
Joe Biden, in particular, has been spooked by Putin’s threats, frequently delaying the provision of vital military hardware for fear of provoking a broader escalation in the conflict.
It took the White House an age to sign off on the delivery of US-made F-16 warplanes to Kyiv as Biden dithered over the implications of giving his approval. The first aircraft did not arrive until almost two years after Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky first made his request.
Concerns over Russia’s response to Ukraine using Western-made long-range Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets on Russian territory are similarly inhibiting America’s ability to provide clarity on the issue, as Sir Keir Starmer discovered during his visit to the White House.
Putin has good reason to fear their use, as they could destroy the 250 Russian bases close to the border used to launch almost daily attacks against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.
The Biden administration’s hesitancy simply gives the Russians a distinct advantage on the battlefield, which is perverse given that Moscow is relying on Iranian-supplied ballistic missiles and drones to maintain their barbaric assault.
Washington’s dithering on the issue, moreover, fails to take into account Putin’s own political predicament where, rather than achieving any of his goals in Ukraine, he has suffered the first loss of Russian territory since the Second World War.
If the Ukrainians can consolidate their recent gains in Kursk by nullifying Russians ability to launch attacks from within the safety of its own borders, then Putin will really be in trouble.
Hence the need for empty threats once again. In truth, the Russian leader is desperately clinging to the hope that Donald Trump will win November’s presidential election, thereby saving his skin by doing a deal to end the war – hopefully one that would leave Moscow in control of large tracts of Ukrainian territory.
Such an outcome would be disastrous. The window of time in which to press the Ukrainian advantage is growing narrower. Western leaders must seize the initiative, and allow Ukraine to win this war.